I'm the first to admit that market prognostication is not my cup of tea. Nor is that the purpose of this blog. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that general economic conditions greatly impact business in Silicon Valley. From venture capitalists seeking to raise new or follow-on funds to startups looking to get tap the Sand Hill Road coffers, 2009 has hardly been "business as usual," unless one benchmarks against the days of the dot.com crash. Sure, great startups continue to get funded at a decent clip--probably more so in the last few months than in the first quarter of the year--but the next tier of emerging companies are finding it exceedingly difficult to raise capital. That isn't surprising considering the lack of money pouring into new and/or follow-on funds from limited partners in the first half of 2009.
The National Venture Capital Association, in connection with Thomson Reuters, recently released its Q2 2009 venture capital fund raising report. One had to expect that the numbers would be modest. Nevertheless, the actual numbers were shocking -- to me at least.
In the second quarter 2009, a total of 21 funds raised capital. That is the lowest amount since 1996. The total raise was just over $1.7 billion, which is more than a 60% decrease from the first quarter and the lowest total dollar raise since the first quarter 2003. Those are staggering numbers.
Taking a look at the health of the current economy, our friends at Tatum released their monthly market assessment, with the focus on predicting market conditions over the next 30-60 days. While previous Tatum reports brimmed with cautious optimism, the July installment of its market survey is much more cautious, with a declining outlook over the next 60 days.
Again, I'm not a market analyst, Nostradamus, or even Jimmy the Greek. I have no idea what the market has in store for us. Is the venture capital market poised for a major slow down in activity? Will investment appetite increase as the year comes to a close with VCs still sitting on piles of money? Will next month's short-term Tatum outlook be more positive? I wish I knew.
For those looking for positive outlooks, Michael Hartnett, the CEO and Chariman of Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Research Investment Committee went wild with his long-term prediction. With many of the pundits singing doom and gloom, Hartnett boldly predicted an end to the global recession.
I certainly hope he is correct.